Nikhil Gupta – Pike & Hurricane

All Power to All People?

Nikhil Gupta — Mon, 03 Jun 2019 18:55:39 +0000

You’ve learned about all the great revolutions and struggles of the past. The French Revolution was iconic, overthrowing all the monarchs and aristocrats. The American Revolution fought off the British colonizers in what led to the establishment of the United States of America. Any definition of a revolution generally involves an extreme shift in a country’s political structure. The sheer audacity adds to the romance and the ink writing the stories of France and America is permanent in your history books. They are often symbolized as the foundational pillars of the modern world.

Well, what if I wave my wand and magically give you a revolution that changes the country’s government, sends the colonialists back home with their tails between their legs; oh, and also abolishes slavery…. All in the year 1804? If the sheer audacity of such a revolution exists (at that time), then surely you must have studied it.

It did happen. But there is little discourse in history that captures the magnitude and greatness in the story of Haiti – one that was well ahead of its time. But why is this the case?

The Haitian Revolution

Between 1791 to 1804, the French colony of Saint-Domingue saw a series of conflicts that eventually led to the formation of an independent country founded by former slaves. It began with Toussaint L’Ouverture gaining control of several slave areas. He was an ex-slave and is considered the most charismatic hero and leader of the revolution. It ultimately ended as a successful slave rebellion that established a fully functioning country.

Why is this particularly special? Well, slave rebellions have historically almost always failed. This was the biggest slave rebellion since Spartacus’s failed revolt 1900 years ago!

Slavery wasn’t the only institution of fragmentation in the colony. Haitian society was also divided by the metrics of class and gender. The population of the country consisted of roughly 500,000 slaves, 32,000 colonists and interestingly, 24,000 Affranchis. The Affranchis were mostly of mixed, African and European descent and were often slave owners themselves. Their identity added an extra layer of fragmentation on a class and racial level and was crucial in determining the tide and success of the revolution. There also existed a faction of slaves that escaped called the Maroons and fought guerilla battles with the colonial forces.

To be able to unite multiple factions in a society that has been divided on so many levels, given the time period, is truly unique. This uniqueness brings a peculiarity with it because despite it being around the same time as the American and French Revolutions, it had somehow been omitted from the history books. The Americans were fighting for their freedom from Britain, and France was fighting for liberty within their own nation. Haiti surpasses both cases on paper. Even though the revolutions in France and America were successful, neither nation abolished slavery for many years afterwards. It cannot be stated enough that the abolotion of slavery in 1804 is as revolutionary as revolutions get in the history of mankind.

Winners write history

Historians have admittedly described the Haitian Revolution as the most successful slave rebellion. The problem with this is that it reduces the complexities of the revolution that brought forth ideals of human rights, universal citizenship and participation in government. Many argue that it has purposefully been done this way as Haiti threatened to essentially steal the thunder from America and France.

Popkin argues that certain ommissions by historians stem from the fact that it was considered a greater accomplishment than the American Revolution. As word about the Haitian Revolution circulated, many European powers ostracized Haiti, fearing the spread of more slave rebellions. If it’s possible in one colony, it gives hope elsewhere and that’s bad for business. Many slave owning states in America were thus wary of the revolution. Despite Haiti achieving universal equality, it was shunned and forgotten because it posed as a threat to the (white) west’s poster child revolution of its own.

In many ways, then, the true victors in the foundation of modernity were decided on a racial instead of a meritorious level. While this, by no means, aims to discredit the revolutions in France and America, it hopes to incite conversations today about social justice and universal human rights for all. Awareness of history as well as omitted history could bring about all power to all people.

by Nikhil Gupta

Photo Credits:

Haiti flag – Carifiesta 2011, abdallahh, CC BY 2.0

Haiti, elycefeliz, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

rEvolution!, Albert, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

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The Nile: River Wars

Nikhil Gupta — Fri, 12 Apr 2019 13:28:21 +0000

It’s weird to imagine human beings as walking, talking sacs of water. After all, 70% of our body consists of it. Water is just as important to the individual as it is to the whole- it facilitates life on this planet. In 2010, the UN recognized water as a basic human right and called for countries and International Organizations to provide financial resources, help with capacity building and share technologies in order to grow together.

That’s fantastic right? Well, one thing studying political science teaches you is that it’s always complicated. Let’s try to break down the logistics of the idealistic goal of providing safe drinking water for the entire planet.

Water the tensions?

Fires require friction. And in this story, the friction is fundamental. Everyone needs water. However, clean water is scarce. How does one hydrate an exponentially growing population with the added complication of an imminent, irreversible, change of climate? Langford highlights that there are two dominant approaches to answer this question. The economic approach sees water as a commodity. This means that the delivery of water depends on market mechanisms and is regulated by price. Conversely, the social approach advocates for a top-priority universal access to water.

No prizes for guessing–the former is the dominant and widely practised approach.

In fact, several reports indicate that the implications of climate change would be droughts and mass water shortages. Researchers from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre conducted a study wherein they identified areas in the world where the likelihood of a water war is more likely to occur. The most volatile of these areas are transboundary waters i.e water bodies that transcend political borders and are shared by neighbouring countries. The likelihood of water-related friction amongst these countries is expected to increase by 74.9 to 95 percent. The lead author of this study, Fabio Farinosi, said in a statement that the key factor that would equip countries to avoid conflict is cooperation.

And there’s the catch! Countries sharing rivers as part of their main fresh water supply find themselves in a zero sum game situation. Ideally, they need to balance domestic needs with the needs of every party involved. But the reality is far from this, as there exist a multitude of factors influencing a country’s stance on a foreign policy situation.

And the situation surrounding the world’s longest river is turning out to be quite the conundrum.

11 Recipes for War

The Nile river basin encompasses 11 countries, and over 300 million people depend on it. Its resources, however, are distributed unequally and some countries are more vulnerable than others. In order to devise a win-win scenario, one needs to choose between equality and equity. Domestic and international needs must be shared instead of seen as a trade off.

Easier said than done. In particular, the geopolitical situation between Egypt and Ethiopia is quite concerning. The problem stems from the flow of river and the relative geography of the countries. For centuries, Egypt has had the lion’s share of the river, mainly due to historical treaties. It is also the most dependent on it. In 1979, the Egyptian president Anwar Sadat made the bold claim that the only thing that could make Egypt go to war is water. This status quo has been put to the test when Ethiopia decided on the creation of the largest dam in Africa by the blue Nile river.

How exactly is this a problem? Well, dams are like taps–they control the flow of the water. Moreover, Egypt happens to be at the bottom of this pyramid i.e. there are 10 other nations that are further upstream and would receive water from the Nile before Egypt. This concern was noted by Mohamed Abdel Aty–Egypt’s minister of water resources and irrigation. He estimates that if the water that’s coming to Egypt is reduced by 2% , one million people will be without a job.

From an Ethiopian perspective, the project to build the dam was seen as an initiative to fight their own poverty, and transition into a middle income country. Egypt’s claim to Nile’s waters can be traced back to the Nile Waters Agreement that was signed between Egypt and Sudan during the British colonial rule. This agreement assigned no water to Ethiopia and the other 8 countries that are based around the river. Thus, although Egypt might need the water most, the upstream states would not recognize its legal and historical claim.

The Ethiopian government claims that the dam would do no harm to Egypt because it is solely meant for hydroelectric purposes. The country has no plans to divert water for irrigation. This may be true in theory, but if the reservoir behind the dam is being filled, it could hold back water supply to Egypt for an entire year. This is especially worrisome for them because water passing through each upstream country comes with a unique set of complications. For instance, water passing through Ethiopian highlands would provide a year-long flow for Sudanese farmers that would be very pleased with this development. Alex de Waal of the World Peace Foundation states that the Sudanese government is already handing out leases for farmlands that will be irrigated once the dam in Ethiopia is built. While this is a boon for Sudan, it could be disastrous for Egypt.

Zero Sum Game

In addition to all the technicalities, there’s an emotional connection between Egyptians and the Nile. They’ve had an entire ancient civilization built around it. It’s their history- written in books and songs. If some sort of agreement isn’t reached, the chances for armed conflict are less abstract. It seems as though there’s trade offs to be made everywhere. One country’s misfortunes are another’s chance to grow and develop.

In such a stalemate, I’m reminded of the movie Saw–the one where a group of strangers play a sick game against their will that involves cutting off their own legs and other gory things for seven movies. It is later revealed that in every game, the strangers had to make a choice–similar to a zero sum situation wherein they either choose to win everything, or cooperate with each other. The idea was that in every situation, it was possible for every participant to survive through communication and trust.

This is the real world though. And unlike the Saw, the countries involved can get help from outside. If anything, the potential volatility in this region must be acknowledged by the African Union and the United Nations. War can always be prevented.

by Nikhil Gupta

Photo Credits:

On_The_Nile, pixelsniper CC BY 2.0

City of Aswan and the Nile river, Christian Junker CC BY NC NC 2.0

Nile Sudan, Stefan Gara CC BY NC ND

Nile at night, Bora S. Kamel CC BY NC SA

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Beer vs. Water

Nikhil Gupta — Sun, 02 Dec 2018 19:09:33 +0000

Literally dying of thirst? Drink a Corona!

Now I know that’s tempting, but unfortunately science says it’ll dehydrate you further. This peculiar trade off is relevant in places like North Mexico and East Africa where it is common for people to wake up one morning and find that there isn’t fresh water to drink.

Ahogado el niño, tapando el pozo.

That’s a Mexican saying which literally translates into “trying to close the well after the child has already drowned” – trying to prevent something which in reality is “too little too late.” In Mexicali and Zaragoza, even the wells are drying up.

Through the magic of the NAFTA agreement, Constellation brands i.e. the third largest beer manufacturer in the United States (owns Corona, Modelo Especial, and Negra Modelo brands) can set up production plants in Mexico at low costs, and export beer across the border without paying tariffs. In 2015, they decided to expand their plants by spending over $2 billion in Zaragoza, Coahuila. In 2016, they focused on setting up a multi million dollar plant in Mexicali.

The problem is that Constellation Brands is exploiting water from the wells of these cities by drilling up to 500 metres deep into the ground. Needless to say, the dry Mexican climate only adds to the misery. In the case of Mexicali, its prime source of water supply comes from the Colorado river. However, being one of the most exploited rivers in North America, only 7% of the river’s flow reaches Mexico. Scientists estimate that the river’s flow will decrease by 5-20% within the next 40 years due to climate change.

Let’s do some basic math then. It takes a little over 3 litres of water to produce 1 liter of beer. In arid places that walk on fine margins, this is a big deal. According to estimates, Constellation Brands could own up to 75% of Mexicali’s water supply. And it isn’t even a case where a company privatizes water with the objective of providing water. Natural water is being dug up in order to make beer – resulting in higher profits for the company on one hand, and locals without water on the other. This caused a massive uproar among people in Mexicali that has largely been ignored by the government. The Mexicali Resiste started a Boycott Modelo campaign that resulted in confrontations between protesters and the police. The bigger picture remains unchanged.

Frustrations can be seen at a political level as well. In an interview with the Guardian, Mayor Leoncio Martínez Sánchez of the municipality of Zaragoza said that “there’s barely a drop of water when you open the tap”

Echoes

This dynamic is paralleled in other parts of the world. For instance, Nile Breweries , based around the source of the Nile river, is owned by the world’s second largest beer producer SABMiller. Similarly in Kenya, East African Breweries (EABL) is located on the banks of Ruaraka river. Surprise, surprise- EABL is owned by Diageo, the world’s biggest liquor producer.

Thus, we notice a trend. The existence of these breweries negatively impacts the water security of countries with a dry climate and a lack of structure that ensures access to safe drinking water. Lobbying efforts of major corporations have added fuel to the fire. For instance, companies in favour of privatization of water such as Nestlé and AB InBev (the world’s largest beer producer) have been partners of the World Water Week in the past. This conflict of interest is quite demoralizing as the voices of common people that are most affected by these activities are never heard.

What can we do about this? The short answer is spread awareness. Granted, alcohol is a strong enough motivator to look away, but stories of those affected need to be echoed worldwide in order to facilitate change.

What’s the way out?

It’s clear that this world can’t live without beer. Perhaps it could be possible to come up with smarter solutions instead. Perhaps the solution is not only the responsibility of the people, but also that of corporations.

In Sweden, the brewery Nya Carnegiebryggeriet, Carlsberg, and the Swedish Environmental (IVL) just launched a new pilsner called PU:REST that is brewed with recycled wastewater. It may not be the sexiest idea, but it is certainly one of the future. While this concept is still new and available only in Sweden, it serves as a stellar example of corporate social responsibility and other breweries should follow suit.

Let’s not sacrifice the basic needs of others for a cold pint.

by Nikhil Gupta

Photo Credits:

The moment a water balloon bursts with two funny water balloons, Public Domain Photography, CC BY-SA 2.0

Its my birthday! Party Woo, Sam Ilic, CC BC-NC 2-0

Child sit on cracked earth, ittipon

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Keeping the Enemy Closer

Nikhil Gupta — Thu, 15 Nov 2018 15:09:21 +0000

You’re in the middle of your Godfather marathon when suddenly, your attention is diverted to your shadow. You find yourself getting sucked into a portal that takes you into the anti-world. It’s a lot like the world we live in – except the economy is the black market, a normal job involves stealing, murder and violence; and actors that form the foundation of the system are institutions of organized crime. Such a world has existed in parallel to our conventional political system for centuries!

I’ve always thought that the relationship between the two worlds is like a Star Wars franchise, where there is a clearly defined good and evil. In reality, though, their relationship mirrors more of a Dark Knight dynamic. In other words, the trend today suggests that the lines between conventional politics and organized crime are blurred.

I don’t like violence, Tom, I’m a businessman

While there isn’t a set definition for the term, organized crime is essentially a network of enterprises set up for the purpose of engaging in activities such as drugs, prostitution, loan sharking etc. They may be illegal, but have continued to have a large public demand only since the birth of any form of political order. Especially today, with the emergence of sophisticated technological advancements, these syndicates are challenging conventional concepts such as rule of law, power and order.

And its not as if states haven’t identified the issue. Indeed, recent research from the United Nations University shows that wherever there is armed conflict, there are usually links to organized crime. Why, then, does this continue to exist? The short answer is that it’s trickier than you think.

It should be clear that organized crime poses as a threat to peace and security globally. The problem, though, is that organized crime networks are intertwined with the global economy. The fact that some of the world’s top criminal organizations currently generate more revenue than select nation states is astounding!

Fortune’s list of the top five organized crime groups estimates the “Solntsevskaya Bratva” (Russian mafia) creating a revenue of $8.5 billion and “Yamaguchi Gumi” (aka the Yakuza from Japan) a revenue of $6.6 billion in a year. This massive revenue is then laundered into legal businesses that pay taxes which – in the larger scheme of things – contribute to the country’s economy.

Like it or not, sometimes organised crime groups tend to complement states by getting their hands dirty for activities that “white knight” governments can’t acceptably do. That extends to trafficking drugs and arms, assassinations, extortion, money laundering, and strategic offshore investment — including in foreign politicians. Consequently, there is oftentimes a tendency for organized crime groups and governments to scratch each other’s backs.

Rise of the Mafia State?

The elephant in the room needs to be addressed. The current president of the most powerful country in the world is under investigation for collusion with the Russian mob during the election campaign. Journalist Craig Unger, in his House of Trump, House of Putin goes in detail to illustrate that Trump’s ties with Russian organized crime isn’t new and has a 30 year history. This is a watershed case to highlight that the relationship between the Russian government and its mob is symbiotic.

But this game has had many players. For instance, the release of previously confidential U.S. government materials on the assassination of President John F. Kennedy seem to confirm that the CIA worked with the American mafia to try to assassinate Fidel Castro. It’s sort of like a priest hiring a consulting firm to engage in blasphemy on his behalf.

It’s a no-brainer, then, that the sins of organised crime can’t be put to justice overnight. But what does the crystal ball say?

Leave the gun, take the Cannoli

The UN University predicts that collusion between political and criminal actors will only increase in the future, playing an even bigger role in national and global governance over the next three decades.

This is unsurprising, for the betting man would double down after seeing trends such as the migration crisis today, where government policies leave loopholes for the illegal transport of refugees. Additionally, economic and political vulnerability has always been good for business which can exploited more efficiently today in a world of globalization. However, a growth in anti-state activities would lead to the growth of the state executive. The car wash scandal- possibly the biggest corruption scandal in history shows that at some point, complex networks can be dissolved.

This compels me to disagree with the romanticized notion that the mafia and the state would be interchangeable concepts in the future. Institutions of organized crime are agents of the anti-state, i.e. the potential of their power is determined by the state as a point of reference. Thus, even with the imminent growth of organized crime in the future, there’s always going to be an equilibrium between the conventional world and the anti-world.

By Nikhil Gupta

Photo Credits:

Crime Hmm, Tobyas Reaper– CC BY 2.0

Putin is coming, Yuri Akopov– CC BY NC-2.0

Gun, hands back, weapon, Skitterphoto

Agent Dangerous, Open Clipart-Vectors

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The Social Network of Ethnic Conflict

Nikhil Gupta — Sun, 07 Oct 2018 15:59:14 +0000

Social media is a place where you will find anything ranging from a passively nihilistic moth meme– to rallying people into committing violence. The latter is slightly more concerning. How does one go about drawing a line here? Surely, social media platforms extend a certain responsibility when it comes to controlling hostile and potentially life threatening content…right? Let’s take a closer look at how the use of Facebook can be a dangerous prospect in some countries.

The Coveted Torch of Information

In a typically democratic and well-developed country- the responsibility of filtering and distributing information is bestowed onto the industry of traditional journalism. Clearly, such a responsibility is no joke and there are conventional standards set to uphold the integrity of this industry. The journalist is, for instance, required to be objective and unbiased. In this regard the press is referred to as the 4th estate, and its freedom is essential to maintain democracy. The Center for International Media Assistance (CIMA) substantiates this through statistical research and have found that a freer press is an integral part of freedom.

Such a status quo has encountered a post-millennial, generation Z problem. The press has been using long-established, traditional media platforms such as TV broadcasts, radio and newspapers. However, the world is changing. Social media platforms have been – either knowingly or unwittingly – competing with these traditional media platforms over the coveted torch of information. The former makes the audience its nucleus, whereas the latter puts the audience in a passive position- Nobody likes being told what’s what!

Information Rivers and Floods

An exponential rise of social media platforms has accelerated the flow of information in the world. A vast amount of information is available to us at our utmost convenience. The catch here is that its independence means that there are no conventional standards of filtering this information. Consequently, the combination of an information overload and convenience can be disastrous. This is mainly because the traditional media has been heavily undermined by the so-called fake news epidemic. The gimmick here is that people don’t like being told what’s what on the one hand – but ironically on the other hand resort to dubious sources of information that confirm their pre-existing biases. This can be observed in the watershed cases of the presidential elections in the US, and Brexit.

If the impact of misinformation via social media on countries with an established political structure and a 4th estate is this high, then what about misinformation in countries without such a system? In the cases of Myanmar and South Sudan, misinformation and hate speech spread across Facebook have contributed to ethnic conflict.

Dark Side of the Coin

I remember being immensely fascinated and inspired by my friend who participated in the Egyptian Revolution. People – in absolute solidarity – rose up against a despot in a revolution that inspired its neighbors to muster the courage and follow suit. The role of Facebook for Egyptians evolved from a place to vent into a platform to organize protests and rallies. However, Facebook was a mere tool used by Egyptians in a cause that was already echoed in the country. In the words of Professor Henry Jenkins, “We do not live on platforms, we live across platforms. We choose the right tools for the right job.” The dark side of the coin here is that false information circulating around Facebook can be misinterpreted as truth.

In Myanmar, for instance, Facebook is often seen as ‘the internet’. This is unsurprising when you realize that half a decade ago, Myanmar was one of the least connected countries in the world. In 2012, only 1.1% of its population had access to the internet. However, in 2013, the price of mobile SIM cards dropped from over $200 to $2 due to the deregulation of telecommunications. This led to a majority of the population to purchase SIM cards with internet access. Around this time, Facebook went viral and soon was considered a status symbol. In essence, people resorted to this social media platform for daily information.

The flipside is manifested in Buddhist extremists that circulate hate speech against Rohingya muslims. In 2014, a Muslim man was rumoured to have raped a Buddhist woman, and this information spread like wildfire on Facebook. Upon reading this on extremist Buddhist monk- Ashin Wirathu’s public page, people did not question the legitimacy of the information by searching for evidence. Instead, it resulted in a riot of people that ultimately ended with two people dying.

Facebook and ‘the Enemy’

Myanmar has, in recent times, been scrutinized by the international community over cases of multiple human rights violations against the Rohingyas. According to Medecins sans Frontieres (MSF), casualties are a shattering 10,000 deaths. Facebook is used as a tool by influential individuals to paint a picture of ¨an enemy¨ according to their arbitrary bidding. They have no journalistic responsibility to relay an unbiased truth. Instead, misinformation is used for the pursuit of power by the manipulation of a vulnerable people. I know, sometimes, the truth hurts.

Feeling unnerved yet? Well, it gets darker. It seems political vulnerability and Facebook’s openness have more in common than you thought, as a similar dynamic can be seen in other countries. South Sudan’s on and off civil war has left its 4th estate in shambles. Information isn’t relayed through the metric of objectivity, but as a tool to rally for the war effort. Berlin based researcher Stephen Kovats notes, “Linkages between social media, and word of mouth, and ending up with a gun in the hand or a machete, those are fairly clear.”

The logic is painfully straightforward. Unity is good for the cause and anger is a powerful fuel that unites. Someone finds a gruesome image of people killed in an unrelated war. Regardless of its truth, it is spread around Facebook with the claim that the enemy had a hand in it. The resulting anger creates a larger divide between the two factions and in the case of South Sudan, takes a racial context. In 2016, a UN report concluded that “social media has been used by partisans on all sides, including some senior government officials, to exaggerate incidents, spread falsehoods and veiled threats, or post outright messages of incitement.”

Accountability to the people

So how did this come to be? Surely Facebook must have a protocol to deal with hate speech and life threatening misinformation. The truth is that it heavily relies on users reporting the hate speech for it to be flagged and ultimately removed. However, there exists a massive problem in translation. The main languages of both South Sudan and Myanmar are in a different text and Facebook is severely understaffed in both countries to have the resources to deal with these intricacies.

In the case of South Sudan, Facebook is not equipped to recognize certain offensive discourses and there are several terms used commonly in South Sudan that go under the radar. For instance, the term ‘kokoro’ is a derogatory term used to describe people that eat too much. However, in a social context it is used to refer to the Dinka tribe in an offensive manner. Similarly, the term ‘ber’ is used to address people who do not associate with either tribes and must, therefore, be killed. In Myanmar, discourses such as ¨if its kalar, get rid of the whole race¨, and ¨just feed them to the pigs¨ are circulated on Facebook.

The truth hurts because Facebook has it all backwards. While Mark Zuckerberg has officially acknowledged these concerns, attempts to rectify this are frankly not enough because countries like Myanmar and South Sudan are nowhere near Facebook’s list of priorities.

What now?

So in a nutshell, Facebook’s prioritization of incessant expansion abroad has left the social media platform vulnerable to being a breeding ground for violence. In an attempt to expand their business, they managed to become ever-present in countries where its omnipotence has, albeit as a bi-product, resulted in a monopoly of information. This monopoly is unfortunately used for misinformation.

What can be done to change this? The main focus should be raising awareness to people in these countries about misinformation. I believe that this is a calling for the industry of journalism to evolve from the use of not only mass media, but also to be equally active and prevalent in social media. If people are -from a position of convenience i.e. social media-made aware of legitimate sources of information, it could save lives.

Related articles:

Ashin Wirathu: One Man Triggering Ethnic Conflict

Lessons Learned from Chapel Hill

Photo Credits

Ayeyarwady Bagan, Yoshitaka Ando (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Facebook Translations, Marco Bardus (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Information, Rosalyn Davis (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)

Myanmar: Urgent Humanitarin Needs in Rakhine State, EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Myanmar’s Rakhine State: different realites of displaced, confined and resettled communities, EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

South Sudan, Steve Evans (CC BY-NC 2.0)

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